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If you have been waiting for mortgage rates to drop before you buy, the last year has been frustrating. Rates did not drop. The 30 year fixed averaged 6.76 percent on September 10, 2026, which is higher than the 6.35 percent it averaged a year earlier, and the highest since June 2025.
So that is the bad news, and we are not going to dress it up. Borrowing money still costs what it costs.
Here is the part that does not make headlines. While rates sat still, other parts of the market moved toward the buyer. There are more homes for sale, they are taking weeks rather than days to sell, and builders are putting real money on the table to get deals closed. If you are shopping in Bothell, Kent, or anywhere around Snohomish and King County, you have room to negotiate that simply did not exist in 2021.
Let us walk through what actually changed, and what it means for your payment.
Where mortgage rates stand in 2026
As of early September 2026, the 30 year fixed sits near 6.76 percent and the 15 year near 6.09 percent, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey. The low point over the past year was 6.17 percent back in October 2025. So we have been moving in a narrow band, and lately the wrong way.
The Federal Reserve is a big part of why. It has been holding its benchmark rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, and its own statement says inflation "remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal." The Fed meets again on September 16, 2026 with updated projections. Worth remembering that the Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, so even a cut does not automatically move what a lender quotes you.
The Mortgage Bankers Association raised its forecast in August 2026 and now expects the 30 year to average about 6.6 percent in the third quarter, 6.7 percent in the fourth, and roughly 6.7 percent through 2027.
Treat that as a forecast rather than a promise, because forecasts for this number get revised often, including as recently as August. The practical takeaway is that nobody credible is predicting a return to 3 percent. If your plan depends on that, you may be waiting a very long time.
Rates move weekly, so check current numbers with a lender before you make a decision on anything in this article.
Three things that actually moved in buyers' favor
There are more homes to choose from
This is the big one locally. Northwest MLS reported 24,675 active listings across its coverage in August 2026, up 22 percent from a year earlier, and months of inventory rose from 3.19 to 4.21. Snohomish County saw one of the largest increases in the state, with listings up 39.3 percent. Nationally, the National Association of Realtors counted 1.62 million homes for sale in August, 5.9 percent more than a year ago.
Months of supply is the number to watch. Under about four months, sellers hold the cards. Above that, buyers start getting choices, and choices are what let you walk away from a house that is not right.
Homes are sitting on the market long enough to negotiate
The National Association of Realtors put the typical home at 31 days on market in August 2026, up from 29 in July and level with a year ago. Redfin, which measures differently, had the median at 44 days in the four weeks ending August 23, 2026.
Price cuts are running at about one listing in five, 20.8 percent, which is roughly where they sat a year ago rather than a new development. The useful shift is time, not discounting. A house that has been listed for six weeks has a seller who is thinking about their next move. That is a very different conversation from being the eleventh offer on a weekend.
Local prices have eased and affordability has stopped getting worse
The Northwest MLS median sale price was $635,000 in August 2026, down 2.3 percent from a year earlier. King County came in at $845,000 and Snohomish County at $724,500. Nationally prices are still rising, up 1.6 percent year over year to $429,100, so this softening is a Puget Sound story more than a national one.
On affordability, Redfin's mid-year analysis found the income needed to afford a typical home fell 0.5 percent year over year, to about $109,796, and that housing costs took 37.6 percent of a typical household's income rather than 39.3 percent. The share of listings a median household can afford rose from 30.5 percent to 34.2 percent. For starter homes, the income needed was down 1.5 percent year over year.
Housing is not cheap. It is just less bad than it was.
Why new construction is where the negotiating room is
The new home market is looser than the resale market, and that gap is where buyers are getting paid.
Census and HUD data for July 2026 showed 488,000 new homes for sale, which works out to 9.6 months of supply against 4.9 months for existing homes. The two are measured differently, since the new home count includes homes not yet started, so do not read that as double the slack. Even allowing for it, the new side is far looser.
Builders carry costs on standing inventory in a way that a family selling one house does not, so they move faster, and they use money to do it.
The National Association of Home Builders reported in August 2026 that 63 percent of builders were offering some form of buyer incentive, and 35 percent had cut prices outright, by an average of 6 percent.
An incentive can be worth more than a price cut
Say a builder offers either $20,000 off the price or $20,000 toward your rate. Off the price, you save a little interest and a little principal each month. Put toward a rate buydown, the same money can cut your monthly payment by considerably more, because it is reducing the cost of the whole loan rather than shaving the balance.
Which one wins depends on your loan size, how long you plan to stay, and whether the buydown is temporary or permanent. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is clear that a temporary buydown lowers your payment for the first one to three years and then steps back up, so you need to be comfortable with the payment after it resets, not just the one on the flyer.
A permanent buydown costs more up front and lasts the life of the loan. One discount point equals 1 percent of the loan amount, and a point does not buy a fixed amount of rate, whatever a rule of thumb tells you. Ask your lender to price both options in writing and compare the actual payments. We wrote a fuller explanation of how a rate buydown works if you want the mechanics.
Locking a rate on a home that is still being built
Timelines matter here. A standard rate lock runs 30 to 60 days, which is fine for a completed home. If your home finishes next spring, you need an extended lock, and extended locks cost money. Some lenders offer a float down that lets you take a lower rate if the market improves before closing. Ask early, because the answer shapes which homesite makes sense for you.
What this looks like in Bothell, Kent, and Snohomish County
The regional numbers hide a lot of variation, so it helps to look at where you are actually shopping.
Bothell sits on the King and Snohomish county line, close to the jobs at Canyon Park and North Creek and inside the Northshore School District. Our Winsor townhomes in Bothell and Duchess townhomes are both in that pocket.
Kent is in South King County, and it is where we are building single family homes at Edenridge. With the King County median at $845,000 in August, the specific neighborhood matters more than the county average when you are working out a payment.
Further north, Snohomish County had both a lower median, $724,500, and the sharpest jump in listings. More listings and a lower median is the combination that gives a buyer the most room, which is worth knowing if you can work from home a couple of days a week.
Washington programs most buyers never hear about
The Washington State Housing Finance Commission runs several programs that pair a competitive first mortgage with down payment help, and every one of its loan products includes some form of down payment assistance. The main ones are Home Advantage, House Key Opportunity, and the Covenant Homeownership Program, which was created to address the effects of historical housing discrimination in the state.
Income and price limits vary by county and change over time, so check current details on the Commission's own site rather than trusting a figure in a blog post, including this one. First time buyer, in program terms, usually means you have not owned a home in the past three years, which surprises people who owned one a decade ago.
Nationally, the baseline conforming loan limit for 2026 is $832,750, rising to $1,249,125 in designated high cost areas. That matters around here, because it decides whether you are shopping for a conventional loan or a jumbo, and jumbo loans have their own rules.
The honest counterargument
Some of this is not going your way, so here it is.
Rates are higher than a year ago, and the MBA expects them to stay near 6.7 percent into 2027. National prices are still rising. Existing home sales in August ran at a 3.98 million annual pace, down 1.2 percent from last year, so plenty of buyers are still sitting it out.
Costs beyond the mortgage are climbing too. Home insurance is projected to rise about 4 percent in 2026 to roughly $3,057 a year, after a 12 percent jump in 2025, and property taxes are their own conversation. Redfin also points out that a typical household still earns about $22,000 less than the income needed for a typical home.
So this is not a cheap market. It is a negotiable one.
A sensible plan for the next year
Start with a lender conversation before you tour anything, and ask for a full written estimate rather than a rate quote. Get clear on what your payment looks like including taxes and insurance, not just principal and interest.
Ask specifically what a builder is offering and whether it is better taken as a rate buydown or a price reduction, then have your lender price both and show you the monthly difference. Watch months of supply rather than headlines. If it keeps climbing, your negotiating position keeps improving.
And keep the two decisions separate in your head. The rate you start with may not be the rate you carry forever, but the home you choose is the one you live in. Your lender can talk you through what that means for your situation.
If you want to see what this looks like in person, you can request a private tour and we will show you what is available, what is currently on offer at that community, and connect you with a lender who can price your payment properly. Our financing page covers the basics, and there are more answers on our FAQ page.
Frequently asked questions
Are mortgage rates going down in 2026?
They have not so far. The 30 year fixed averaged 6.76 percent on September 10, 2026, up from 6.35 percent a year earlier. The Mortgage Bankers Association raised its forecast in August 2026 and now expects an average near 6.6 to 6.7 percent through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. Rate forecasts get revised often, and the Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark on hold while inflation stays above its 2 percent goal.
Is 2026 a good time to buy a house in Washington state?
It is a better time to negotiate than the past few years. Northwest MLS listings were up 22 percent year over year in August 2026, months of inventory rose to 4.21, and the median price eased 2.3 percent. You will pay more in interest than a 2021 buyer and face less competition.
How much do I need for a down payment in King County?
Less than most people assume. Conventional loans can start at 3 percent down for qualified buyers, FHA at 3.5 percent for borrowers who meet its credit requirements, and VA loans require no down payment for eligible service members and veterans. With a King County median around $845,000 in August 2026, the tighter constraints are often the conforming loan limit and your debt to income ratio rather than the deposit itself.
Do first time buyers in Washington get help with closing costs?
Often, yes. Every Washington State Housing Finance Commission loan product includes a form of down payment assistance, which depending on the program can help with costs at closing. Home Advantage and House Key Opportunity are the two most commonly used. Limits vary by county, so confirm current figures with the Commission or a participating lender.
Can a builder lower my mortgage rate?
A builder cannot change market rates, but it can pay to buy your rate down, either for the first few years or for the life of the loan. In August 2026, 63 percent of builders reported offering incentives of some kind. Ask whether an offer is a temporary or permanent buydown, and what your payment becomes after any temporary period ends.
Figures in this article are as of September 2026 and come from Freddie Mac, the Federal Reserve, the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Realtors, Northwest MLS, the US Census Bureau and HUD, the National Association of Home Builders, Redfin, the FHFA, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Rates, inventory and program limits change regularly, so verify current figures before acting on them. Casly Homes is a homebuilder, not a mortgage lender or broker, and nothing here is mortgage advice or a commitment to lend. Incentives vary by community and homesite and are subject to availability and change.